Not long ago, after the Access Hollywood tape came out, I pondered the possibility of Hillary Clinton winning every single state in Tuesday’s presidential election.
Yeah, that’s not gonna happen.
But even in this week of closing polls, FBI anti-Clinton leaks and Republican voters supposedly “coming home” to their party’s candidate, I still think Hillary Clinton is going to win the election – and it won’t even be close. In fact, by 11PM Eastern time on Tuesday, I think we’ll be wondering what we were so worried about.
Behold my map:
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
The reason? Turnout. Even if Trump is even in the polls, that doesn’t mean anything if his supporters don’t get out and vote.
Donald Trump is a genius at using the mass media to get his message out, but compared to Clinton, his ground operation is sorely lacking. The Democrats are spending more money, and using many more people, to make sure that their supporters make it to the polls.
Plus, Trump’s conspiracist message – that the system is rigged and the election itself might be fixed – can work against him. If you’re a Trump supporter and you know that the fix is in, why bother taking the time to vote in the first place?
Finally, Hillary Clinton is acting like a candidate playing for the win, not just holding her gains. She is spending much of this weekend in Ohio, a state where Trump has consistently led in the polls. Team Hillary is still trying to expand its map, not just fight over battleground states like Florida.
Never mind the must-win purple states like where Trump has to run the table: if he loses Ohio he is finished.
When the dust settles I’m predicting a decisive win for Clinton, including the close but traditionally Republican-supporting states of Arizona and Georgia. Trump is ahead in these states, but not enough to overcome the Democrats’ ground advantage.
One last thought: if you really, legitimately believe Trump would be better for the country, by all means, vote for him. I won’t hold that against you.
But if you know Trump is dangerously unqualified but support him anyway, out of pure partisan spite…that will be neither forgotten nor forgiven.