With less than one month before Election Day, this is not what a Republican candidate wants the Drudge Report to look like:
This is not what he wants the Five Thirty Eight election prediction to look like:
And with the crucial senior-citizen vote in the balance, this isn’t what a normal candidate would want going out in his name. But we’re not dealing with a “normal” candidate, are we?
Everyone understandably compares this election to previous American Presidential contests, but I wonder if the best comparison might be to the Canadian federal election in 1993. When an unpopular gaffe-prone incumbent political party based its entire campaign on the opposition leader being “old” and “out of touch.” And ultimately resorted to television commercials which looked like they were making fun of his facial deformity, ultimately destroying whatever pockets of support they had left.
The mighty Progressive Conservative Party of Canada was reduced to two seats in the House of Commons, never really recovered in subsequent elections, and was ultimately forced into a merger of unequals with the Reform Party/Canadian Alliance.
The Republican Party will not meet that fate in 2020 – only one-third of the Senate is up for grabs this year, and in deeply polarized America the GOP still has plenty of strongholds – but Republican strategists must be getting very nervous when polling from Georgia – Georgia! – looks like this:
In Georgia, Biden leads 51 – 44 percent among likely voters, while 4 percent are undecided. On September 29th, the race for the White House was too close to call when Biden had 50 percent support and Trump had 47 percent support. The September survey was taken before the first presidential debate and the president’s COVID-19 diagnosis.
Today, Democrat Jon Ossoff leads Republican incumbent Senator David Perdue 51 – 45 percent, while 3 percent are undecided. This compares to a virtual tie in late September when Ossoff had 49 percent and Perdue had 48 percent.